Why every vote counts; it's all in the numbers
A friend, Gabriel Mendoza, left this comment under one of the stories, I'm posting it here because he has an excellent take on the whole voting process here in the City:
Currently there are seven candidates in District 2 that reside in zip code 33133 - one candidate that resides in 33129 - and one candidate that resides in 33132.
As of January 2015 there were - 11,630 registered voters in zip code 33133. In the 2011 District 2 election - 1,897 registered voters from zip code 33133 cast their votes - 16% voter turnout for 33133.
Out of the - 1,897 votes casted from 33133 in 2011, Sarnoff received - 948 votes - 50% - of the 33133 votes.
If we see a similar trend in 2015 that we saw in 2011, the remaining 50% of the 33133 voters will be split amongst the six candidates that reside in 33133 (Simpson, Palomino, Sklarey, Armbrister, Russell, Gonzalez) one candidate from 33129 (Solares) and one candidate from 33132 (Woods).
Based on my observations; a successful District 2 campaign will be the one that focuses on the entire district and all its 33 precincts.
With over 41,000 registered voters in District 2 and a dismal voter turnout in 2011, candidates will need to focus on issues that resonate with the entire district. Position district wide solutions that will motivate more constituents to take an interest in the future of our district and thus offset the trends of 2011.
Gabriel Mendoza
Miami
Currently there are seven candidates in District 2 that reside in zip code 33133 - one candidate that resides in 33129 - and one candidate that resides in 33132.
As of January 2015 there were - 11,630 registered voters in zip code 33133. In the 2011 District 2 election - 1,897 registered voters from zip code 33133 cast their votes - 16% voter turnout for 33133.
Out of the - 1,897 votes casted from 33133 in 2011, Sarnoff received - 948 votes - 50% - of the 33133 votes.
If we see a similar trend in 2015 that we saw in 2011, the remaining 50% of the 33133 voters will be split amongst the six candidates that reside in 33133 (Simpson, Palomino, Sklarey, Armbrister, Russell, Gonzalez) one candidate from 33129 (Solares) and one candidate from 33132 (Woods).
Based on my observations; a successful District 2 campaign will be the one that focuses on the entire district and all its 33 precincts.
With over 41,000 registered voters in District 2 and a dismal voter turnout in 2011, candidates will need to focus on issues that resonate with the entire district. Position district wide solutions that will motivate more constituents to take an interest in the future of our district and thus offset the trends of 2011.
Gabriel Mendoza
Miami
posted by Tom Falco at 10:00 AM
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2 Comments:
Good analysis Gabriel. And Good advice.
Erik Bojnansky from the Biscayne Times wrote a good autopsy of the 2011 election broken down by precinct right after that election. Good lessons for this time round.
http://www.biscaynetimes.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1023:the
I wrote a blog post yesterday with my take on the splitting of the vote:
http://www.kenrussellmiami.com/kens-blog/2015/4/7/why-splitting-the-vote-in-miamis-commissioner-race-is-a-myth
Thank you Ken for your kind words.
It's evident that the more granual the analysis the better it is to understand previous trends and how to approach them in the upcoming election. In regards to the "splitting" of likely voters in District 2 it is more likely to happen in the precincts of zip code 33133. If each candidate currently has strong relationships and support in their respective precinct, the result of natural "divisions/splits" will be inevitable.
In a non-presidential election voter turnout is historically low and hence the reason that absentee ballots are even that much more important for any candidate. Those pre-election day votes, as we witnessed in 2011 represented a substantial percentage of the winning candidate's votes throughout the entire district.
Factually, more divisions will occur in the election based on the participation of more candidates; it's in the run-off election that the final sum of those divisions will prove to be a myth or a reality for the winning candidate.
With cordial regards,
Gabriel Mendoza
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